On a very hot day with slow speeds, Felix Gall held off pursuers and took today's grueling mountain stage. That final climb cracked one rider after another, including a very famous rider, as I'll get to in a moment. Cyclists looked utterly drained after they crossed the finish line.
The heat and slower pace made our prediction a bit fast today.
- Stage 17: 4h 49' 08" (actual), 4h 35' 19" (prediction), 13' 49" fast (-4.78% error)
I don't like the error, but I'll offer a hint at how sensitive cyclist power output is to the stage-winning time. I would have needed about 2% less power on my model cyclist to match today's winning time. That's all it takes on a mountain stage to go from a perfect prediction to one that is almost 5% off! Check out Gall's average speed.
- Stage 17: 9.55 m/s (34.39 kph or 21.37 mph)
I don't care how fast we were with our prediction, that average speed is impressive on such a challenging stage!
Tadej Pogačar cracked with about 15 km (9.3 mi) left in the stage. He looked completely done. Jonas Vingegaard looks to have wrapped up the general classification with a 07' 35" lead on Pogačar. I'll always remember yesterday's time trial as the stage when Vingegaard smashed the Tour de France. I'll always remember today's stage as the stage when Pogačar's dream of catching Vingegaard was smashed.
A 184.9-km (114.9-mi) medium-mountain stage awaits cyclists tomorrow. They begin in the French commune of Moûtiers and head northwest to Bourg-en-Bresse. There are only a couple of short category-4 climbs, so the stage might be closer to flat than medium-mountain. Either way, it will be interesting to see if the sprinters get a chance to go for the stage win. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 18: 4h 00' 10" (prediction)
Speeds will hopefully be high as the Tour de France heads towards Sunday's Parisian finish.
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