Below is Nibali's time and a comparison with our prediction.
- Stage 13: 5h 12' 29" (actual), 5h 15' 05" (prediction), 02' 36" slow (0.83% error)
The image below show's Nibali's reaction upon winning today's grueling stage (click on the image for a larger view).
That happens to be the same reaction my research student, Chad Hobson, and I had upon learning that our prediction was once again under 1% off! Below is Nibali's average speed.
- Stage 13: 10.53 m/s (37.92 kph or 23.56 mph)
That's pretty good considering the cyclists were biking up a brutal climb to finish off their racing day. The temperature reached 37 C (99 F) at one point, but at least the riders had great vistas, like the one I snapped below from my online feed (click on the image for a larger view).
Not bad, huh? More mountains are on the way tomorrow as Stage 14 starts back in Grenoble and then heads east to the 2058-m (6752-ft) peak of Col du Lautaret, a category-1 climb. Cyclists then have an hors catégorie climb to reach the 2360-m (7743-ft) peak of Col d'Izoard. To complete the 177-km (110-mi) mountain stage, cyclists end with a category-1 climb to the ski resort on the 1855-m (6086-ft) peak at Risoul. Below is our prediction for this formidable stage.
- Stage 14: 4h 53' 57" (prediction)
With such a daunting stage giving riders a second consecutive monster climb to the finish, I will not be surprised if our prediction is a tad fast. How many riders will come in under five hours?