13 July 2014

Does Tony Martin Start Historic Day for Germany?

Tony Martin dominated Stage 9 of the Tour de France today.  When Martin reached the day's greatest height at Grand Ballon, which took riders to 1336 m (4383 ft), I cropped the image below from my video feed (click on the image for a larger view).
Martin was ahead by about three minutes at that point, and won by nearly that margin.  Below is Martin's time and a comparison with our prediction.
  • Stage 9:  4h 09' 34" (actual), 4h 20' 39" (prediction), 11' 05" slow (4.44% error)
Our error went down slightly from yesterday.  After being fast for all three stages in England, we've been on the slow side for the six stages in France.  Below is Martin's average speed.
  • Stage 9:  11.35 m/s (40.87 kph or 25.40 mph)
With Tony Martin making Germany proud in the Tour de France, this could be a day to remember for the Germans if their national team can beat Argentina later today in the World Cup final.

Tomorrow's Stage 10 is the first mountain stage of this year's Tour de France.  Starting where today's stage ended in Mulhouse, cyclists face a 161.5-km (100.4-mi) long stage that mostly takes them through the Vosges Mountains on a semicircular loop to the north and west.  Riders will face a category-3 climb, two category-2 climbs, and four category-1 climbs, including the finish at Planche des Belles Filles.  Below is our prediction.
  • Stage 10:  4h 25' 53" (prediction)
Tony Martin now has the polka-dot jersey and Tony Gallopin has taken over the yellow jersey.  The French will be excited to see one of their own wearing the yellow jersey on Bastille Day.  We'll be anxious to see if the elite cyclists continue to be faster than our predictions.  A day of rest follows Stage 10, so they may go for top times knowing they'll be resting the next day.


  1. As a French fan, nothing beats seeing Gallopin in yellow for Bastille day. Hopefully Pinot/Peraud/Rolland step up and go for the stage win tomorrow to really cap it off.

    1. Thanks for your comment. It will be interesting to see which climber gets the best team support.