19 July 2014

Majka Takes Stage 14 in his First Tour de France!

Polish cyclist Rafał Majka was king of the Alps today.  The 24-year-old is in his first Tour de France, and now he has a stage win.  Vincenzo Nibali made his move with 4 km (2.5 mi) left.  The photo below shows Nibali going for it at the 4-km sign (click on the image for a larger view).
Yellow-jersey-clad Nibali was not only going for the stage win, he was trying to increase his overall lead.  He wasn't able to catch Majka, but he did add a minute on his overall lead on Alejandro Valverde after Valverde faded a bit on today's final climb.  The image below shows an exhausted Majka after he crossed the finish line (click on the image for a larger view).
Kudos to Majka for a great ride up a final climb that made its debut in this year's Tour de France.  It was exciting to see all the attacking taking place on that final category-1 climb. After thinking our prediction would be fast, I asked yesterday how many riders would come in under five hours.  The answer is zero.  We were fast as the comparison with Majka's winning time and our prediction below shows.
  • Stage 14:  5h 08' 27" (actual), 4h 53' 38" (prediction), 14' 49" fast (-4.80% error)
I was worried watching the final climb that our error would eclipse 5%, so I'm glad we came in under that mark.  Hitting three of the past four stages to better than 1% spoils us!  We'll have lots to learn about today's grueling stage, which is what makes this work so much fun.  Below is Majka's average speed.
  • Stage 14:  9.564 m/s (34.43 kph or 21.39 mph)
Cyclists head southwest tomorrow in the southeastern part of France in a 222-km (138-mi) long flat stage.  Beginning in the commune of Tallard, the stage has a great downhill part in the middle where racing is sure to be fast, and then finishes flat in the city of Nîmes.  Below is our prediction.
  • Stage 15:  4h 58' 57" (prediction)
Riders will enjoy a rest day on Monday before tackling the stages in the Pyrenees.  Unlike today, we expect to see cyclists coming in under five hours tomorrow!

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