- Stage 16: 4h 12' 20" (prediction)
I fully expect our prediction to be slow once again. The temptation to tweak our model in the middle of the race is strong, but I resist that because such a tweak at this point is not scientific. We need more time to explore motivations for needed changes. If I were betting on tomorrow's stage, I might go with a time of 3h 45' 00", given how fast the cyclists were in the past week. As I've already noted, our model that worked well in 2012 worked well during the first week of this year's race, but did not work well last week. There is much to learn this week!