- Stage 9: 4h 43' 03" (actual), 4h 56' 40" (prediction), 13' 37" slow (4.81% error)
Though we did better than yesterday's bad prediction, and we are glad to be back under 5% off, we will have to examine our model's power outputs for the mountains stages. The power outputs we use are based on physiological research and power outputs needed in previous races. The athletes are simply doing a bit better than we thought. We always hope for small errors, but the past two stages have given us an opportunity to learn something. That's what makes doing science fun!
Below is Martin's average speed for his big win today.
- Stage 9: 9.922 m/s (35.72 kph or 22.19 mph)
That is a phenomenal average speed for such a grueling mountain stage! A total of 57 riders beat our time with the bottom 16 of that group coming in only about two minutes under our time. There were 125 riders who came in over our time, which means our prediction was beaten by about 31% of the riders.
Chris Froome retains the yellow jersey. He now has a 01' 25" lead over second-place rider Alejandro Valverde, the Green Bullet from Spain. Cyclists will have to fly due north for the next stage, which takes place in northwest France. A day off tomorrow will get them ready for a flat stage on Tuesday. Check back tomorrow to find out what we will predict for Stage 10.