Fraile's Timing was Perfect!

Omar Fraile timed his attack perfectly on the final, brutal climb in Mende.  He looked positively elated when he crossed the finish line (click on image for a larger view).

Behind Fraile is Julian Alaphilippe on the right, who came in second, and Jasper Stuyven, who came in third.  Peter Sagan is behind them and came in fourth.  I have to put a few words down for Jasper Stuyven.  He was part of a group of three who lead a good chunk of the race.  He broke away and looked determine to win the stage (click on image for a larger view).

There he is in the lead with less than 30 km (19 mi) to go.  He biked his tail off trying to get a large enough time gap to give him a chance when he hit the final climb.  It just wasn't enough.  Fraile and Alaphilippe benefited from drafting before they attacked.  They had more gas in the tank.  It just goes to show how critical strategy is.  If a rider goes for glory and sets out alone, he better be sure he's got enough energy to make it to the end without getting caught.  But Stuyven honored his home country of Belgium on Belgian National Day and most definitely earned the red jersey.

The general classification leaders were well behind the stage winner.  They came in a bit more than 18 minutes after Fraile.  Below is a comparison between Fraile's winning time and our prediction.

• Stage 14:  4h 41' 57" (actual), 4h 38' 11" (prediction), 03' 46" fast (-1.34% error)

I love that error!  My model is performing well this year.  Fraile averaged 40.01 kph (24.86 mph) today.  I'm glad he got over 40 kph.  The pace seemed slow at the start and I worried that our prediction might be too fast.

Tomorrow's 181.5-km (112.8-mi) Stage 15 is another medium mountain stage.  Beginning in Millau, the stage ends in Carcassonne and get riders to the second of two rest days in this year's Tour de France.  The Pyrenees will be so close!  Riders will face a tough category-2 climb before they reach the halfway point.  They will contend with a category-1 climb that will take them nearly to the top of Pic de Nore.  After that climb, cyclists will have a thrilling downhill and fly to the finish line.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 15:  4h 28' 09" (prediction)

Will a lone rider go for the stage win?  How will the general classification leaders ride with a rest day coming up and the Pyrenees to follow?