Jonas Vingegaard dominated the final climb -- and dominated Tadej Pogačar. Each time Pogačar attacked, Vingegaard stayed right on his wheel. And then Vingegaard showed on the final climb that he is the strongest rider in this year's Tour de France. He picked up more than a minute on Pogačar, thus effectively ending the competition for GC.
Vingegaard had a lot of team help, especially from Wout van Aert, who contributed to cracking Pogačar on the final climb. Our prediction was a bit fast today.
- Stage 18: 3h 59' 50" (actual), 3h 50' 19" (prediction), 09'31" fast (-3.97% error)
I had about 2% too much power in my model, which is a big deal when it comes to mountain stages. I wonder if the winning time would have been a tiny bit lower if Vingegaard and Pogačar had not had trouble on the final descent. Pogačar attacked, and Vingegaard nearly crashed after he kicked his back wheel. And then Pogačar did crash after taking a turn a bit too wide and getting his front wheel caught in gravel. But in a classy demonstration of sportsmanship, Vingegaard held up and let Pogačar rejoin him, knowing they would battle on the final climb. It was something to see.
Vingegaard's average speed is given below.
- Stage 18: 9.95 m/s (35.82 kph or 22.26 mph)
Tomorrow's 188.3-km (117.0-mi) flat stage begins in the French commune of Castelnau-Magnoac and takes riders north to Cahors. Our prediction is given below.
- Stage 19: 4h 15' 51" (prediction)
Vingegaard just needs a safe ride in the peloton to keep his yellow jersey -- and his polka dot jersey. I hope there are some good breakaways and a great sprint to the finish line. If a few riders decide to go all-out for a stage win, our prediction could be on the slow side.
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