As I've done the past two years, I will post predictions for each stage's winning time. Working with me again this year is Lynchburg College physics major Brian Ramsey. Our goal, as always, is to predict the winning time, not the person who will win the stage. The basic model we employ is described in Chapter 4 of my book (click here or on the image of my book's cover on the right side of the blog). We have modified our model this year and we are anxious to see how well it does. If it works well, we'll obviously be thrilled. If not, we'll have to tweak a little here and there and, hopefully, learn a bit more about how the world works. That's what's great about doing science -- learning something!
So, without further ado, here is our prediction for stage 1:
- Stage 1: 4h 59' 17" (prediction)
This prediction is a bit of a challenge to the athletes: finish the first stage in less than five hours! Will they hold back a little, knowing they've got 20 more stages? Or will some bold rider set a fast pace?