30 June 2013

Bakelants takes Stage 2!

Jan Bakelants of Belgium won today's Stage 2.  He also slips into the overall leader spot with a mere one-second lead over Great Britain's David Millar.  We were a bit slow with our prediction today.  Below is a comparison of the winning time with our prediction.
  • Stage 2:  3h 43' 11" (actual), 3h 51' 28" (prediction), 08' 17" slow (3.71% error)
Given that cyclists were still crossing the finish line 17 minutes after Bakelants, our prediction hit the average cyclist today instead of today's elite cyclist.  An error under 4% isn't bad, but after such a successful first stage, anything worse looks bad by comparison.

Bakelants's average speed is given below.
  • Stage 2:  11.65 m/s (41.94 kph or 20.06 mph)
Tomorrow's Stage 3 is another of the medium-mountain variety.  Picking up where Stage 2 left off in Ajaccio, cyclists have 145.5 km (90.4) to bike before arriving in the commune of Calvi.  After seeing the east side of Corsica in the first stage, the middle of the island today, riders will travel north along the island's western edge tomorrow.  A category-4 climb greats riders at the start, followed by two category-3 climbs just before the halfway point.  A category-2 climb awaits the athletes near the stage's end, the other side of which should make for an exciting sprint to the finish line.  Below is our prediction.
  • Stage 3:  3h 44' 26" (prediction)
The first two stage winners have been a bit faster than we thought.  I won't be surprised if tomorrow's winner edges our time once again.  Enjoy the last day of the race on Corsica!

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