03 September 2020

Lutsenko DOMINATES Climb to Mont Aigoual!

I complained about yesterday's stage being boring.  No such complaint today!  Breakaways and attacks, riders cracking on climbs, and an inspirational ride by a cyclist from Kazakhstan all made for a thrilling sixth stage of this year's Tour de France.  Alexey Lutsenko was a joy to watch during the massive climb to end the stage.  He broke free from the breakaway group on the climb, and he never looked back.  Spaniard Jesús Herrada made a gallant effort to catch Lutsenko, but finished with a very respectable second place.  Check out Lutsenko crossing the finish line.


Lutsenko finished nearly a minute ahead of Herrada.  Early on, I could tell that our model would be slow today.  The breakaway group kept the peloton's speed up.  Cyclists were positively flying at times, and climbers like Lutsenko, Herrada, the young and bold Neilson Powless, and Greg Van Avermaet were setting a torrid pace on the final climb.  Julian Alaphilippe, surely smarting from yesterday's food gaffe that cost him the yellow jersey, kicked hard in the final half kilometre to finish in fifth place.  Check out how our prediction did.
  • Stage 06:  4h 32' 34" (actual), 4h 51' 26" (prediction), 18' 52" slow (6.92% error)
Our error was a little worse than yesterday's error, but I'm not nearly as bothered as I was yesterday.  Yesterday's stage looked like a lot of riders simply trying to make it to the end without injury or shuffling of the general classification.  Today's stage look like the best of the best in the saddle racing their butts off.  Our model needed about 15% more power to match today's time.  Check out Lutsenko's average speed.
  • Stage 06:  11.68 m/s (42.04 kph or 26.13 mph)
For a stage like today's, that's a fast speed!  Well done, Alexey Lutsenko!

A couple of category-3 climbs appear in tomorrow's 168-km (104-mi) Stage 7, although the stage is classified as flat.  The last half of the stage is mostly downhill.  Cyclists will start in the French commune of Millau and then head southwest to the commune of Lavaur.  Our prediction is given below.
  • Stage 07:  3h 57' 13" (prediction)
Will the cyclists hold back like yesterday or let it loose like today?  I would rather miss being too slow than too fast because at least I'll get to watch some great racing!

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