(image credit: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dherholz/246301261/)
Pujols hasn't played for the Cards since helping them win the 2011 World Series. His Los Angeles Angles finished this past season 35 games behind the Astros. But his old team being in the hunt for this year's World Series title got me thinking about Pujols. His 11 seasons in St. Louis were not only some of the best seasons any player has had to open a career, they punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. He finished top-5 in MVP voting in 10 of those 11 seasons (and 9th in his "off" year!), winning the award three times. Two of his second-place MVP finishes were to Barry Bonds (make of that what you will). His career numbers after those 11 seasons in St. Louis already had him ranked among the game's best. He had over 2000 hits, nearly 1300 runs, nearly 450 home runs, nearly 1000 walks, over 1300 RBI, an OBP of 0.420, a SLG of 0.617, and a batting average of 0.328.
We've known for many years now that batting average isn't nearly as valuable a statistic as, say, on-base percentage or slugging percentage. But batting average still resonates with many baseball fans, even scientists like me (who should know better!). I'm 49 years old and I have vivid memories of collecting baseball cards when I was very young. The stats on the backs of those cards became numbers that my brain couldn't shake. Batting titles, 200 hits in a season, getting over 0.300 batting average, and sluggers who could top 100 RBI became the baseball benchmarks of my youth. Finishing one's time in baseball as a "lifetime 0.300 hitter" had the cachet of a great career. When Pujols left the Cards after the 2011 season with his 0.328 lifetime batting average, that number caused names to pop up in my head at the time. I was lucky enough to have watched Rod Carew and Wade Boggs on television during their prime years. Those two names represent a combined 12 American League batting titles, two players who each topped 3000 career hits, and two players who have lifetime 0.328 batting averages. You know who else hit 0.328 for his career? Honus Wagner. Setting aside disputes over 9 hits and 10 at-bats in his career, Wagner's name is known to any baseball fan, and certainly to anyone who collects baseball cards. He was in the inaugural Hall of Fame class and regarded by many as the greatest shortstop, though comparing dead-ball-era players to the athletes of today is next to impossible. The point I'm making here is that when Pujols left the Cards after their championship season in 2011, he had the career average of great hitters like Carew, Boggs, and Wagner. But his power numbers blew those greats away. Those of us who watched Pujols in his prime were privileged to see one of baseball's elites.
Despite finishing 5th in the 2011 MVP race, Pujols had his worst year with the Cards. Though he had a year that essentially every baseball player would love to have, it wasn't the elite year that Pujols was used to in his first decade in the league. It was the first year that he didn't top 100 RBI (he had 99) or hit over 0.300 (he finished at 0.299). His OBP and SLG were down, and he continued his penchant for grounding into double plays, leading the majors with 29. He was nearly 32 years old and, if he was like most players throughout baseball's history, was getting ready to enter the decline phase of his career. Maybe the Cardinals could see all that, though they did offer him a lot of money to come back. Pujols was traded to the Angels prior to the start of the 2012 season. The Angels signed Pujols to a 10-year deal worth approximately $254 million, which was about $44 million more than what the Cards were willing to pay. Much has been written about how financially crazy that was for the Angels, though hindsight does aid in the complaining about the contract.
The Angels surely thought they could get four or five seasons of Pujols nearly at the level of his best seasons with the Cards. He walloped 50 doubles and 30 home runs in his first season with the Angels. But the 0.285 batting average he had that first year with the Angels was, by far, his best batting average season with the Angels. He made just one All-Star team in the past 8 seasons as an Angel, and that was in 2015 when he finished the year with 40 home runs. But as impressive as that was, he hit just 0.244 with a paltry 0.307 OBP. Over the past 3 seasons, Pujols collectively hit less than 0.245, had an OBP under 0.300, and had a -1.0 WAR. That last number is almost hard to believe for a player like Albert Pujols.
Though he's hit over 200 home runs in his 8 seasons with the Angels, no one can argue that Albert Pujols has been anything close to the player he was for the Cardinals. He did finish the 2019 season, his 19th in the big leagues, with a career batting average of 0.300, which means his years with the Angels knocked 0.028 off his career batting average. But though the record books have Pujols as a 0.300 hitter, that's rounded. He actually has a 0.2996 career batting average. If he retired today, Pujols would indeed be able to wear the "lifetime 0.300 hitter" moniker. But there is a trace of Ted Williams in me that wants to see Pujols come back for his 20th season and get his lifetime average over the exact 0.300 number. Albert Pujols has come to the plate 12231 times in his career. He needed just five outs he made in his career to have been hits for his lifetime average to be over the 0.300 line. Five outs. In 19 years. Fans of Pujols can surely recall a couple of great defensive plays made against him, or a couple of blown umpire calls that cost him hits.
What would you do? If you were Pujols and about to turn 40, would you retire and have the magic 0.300 in the record books? Would you bust your tail over the off-season, get in the best shape of your life, and come back with a mission to get over .300? Pujols hasn't reached 500 at bats in the previous two seasons, but let's give him exactly 500 at bats for the 2020 season. Pujols would need 155 hits in those 500 at bats to have a lifetime average of 0.30008 (154 hits would have him at 0.299991). Getting 155 hits in 500 at bats means Pujols would have to hit 0.310 next year, something he's not done since 2010, i.e. half his career ago. So that seems very unlikely. But what if Pujols got hot to start the season? He could go 6 for 6 and sneak over the 0.300 line (0.300009 to be closer to exact). Now that would be almost like Ted Williams going 6 for 8 in the double header to end the 1941 season and finish comfortably over 0.400. Starting the season 6 for 6 is unlikely for Pujols, but not nearly as improbable as hitting 0.310 over the course of a full season.
So, again, what would you do? The elephant in the room, of course, is what Pujols will earn next year. Pujols has already made over $285 million in his baseball career (not including endorsements!). He's set to earn $29 million next season, and then $30 million the following season. He'll make over $179k per game next season, which is nearly $20k per inning (assuming each game has 9 innings, which won't be true). He could be the DH and only play four or five innings per game. Just a select few people can even comprehend the money that Pujols could make next year. If Pujols comes back and plays one game, he'll earn more from that one game than I will in all of 2020. So I would do what I suspect most everyone else would do, and that's come back and earn an incredible salary doing something that I love to do. Even if he plays the next two seasons, and he plays well below his former self, he'll still finish his career with a first-ballot Hall of Fame ticket. He'll also give fans like me, who have never seen Pujols play in person, the chance to cross off one item on our bucket lists. I'm rooting for Albert Pujols to come back strong next season -- and hit at least 0.310!
Great post, Eric!
ReplyDeleteThanks, Neal!
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