I wrote a guest post for The Johns Hopkins University Press blog that concerns my Tour de France modeling. Click here for the direct link to the post. As I state there, I plan to stick my neck out again this year and offer predictions for each stage's winning time. My student, Brian Ramsey, and I incorporate real stage data into a model that employs the unalterable laws of physics and published human-performance research to come up with our predictions (see chapter 4 of my book). We never know in advance, of course, if there will be poor weather, crashes, or some other impediment to great racing. We do the best science we can, and have a lot of fun in the process. So, without further ado, below is our prediction for this year's Prologue.
- Prologue: 7' 35" (prediction)
My best guess is that a cyclist will beat our time, but that's what makes this so enjoyable!