Ryder Hesjedal takes the Giro d'Italia!

Canadian Ryder Hesjedal edged Joaquim Rodríguez of Spain by just 16 seconds to take this year's Giro d'Italia.  Road conditions shortened the final stage, which most definitely affected my prediction!  Below are the results with the average speed for Marco Pinotti of Italy, who won today's time trial.

• Stage 21:  33' 06" (actual), 39' 39" (prediction), 6' 33" slow (19.79% error - not real!)
• Stage 21:  14.2 m/s (31.8 mph)

But, wait!  Don't kill me for that large error.  I didn't know until just as the race began that the final stage would be shortened from 31.5 km (19.6 miles) to 28.2 km (17.5 miles).  That 10.48% reduction in distance makes all the difference.  Using my predicted average speed with the new distance, my prediction changes to 35' 30", which reduces my error to 7.25% slow.  Pinotti still completed the stage faster than I would have predicted, but my prediction was not nearly as bad as it first seemed.

It's now on to preparation for the Tour de France.  Modeling the final week of the Giro d'Italia has been fun, partly because it's been such a good learning experience.  Check back in early July for predictions of Tour de France stage-winning times.