tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5638300827372767452.post8890084993042250260..comments2024-03-29T05:31:37.221-04:00Comments on John Eric Goff's Blog: Much better on Stage 17!John Eric Goffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16055443328349993690noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5638300827372767452.post-58113991032970768802011-07-21T12:42:13.325-04:002011-07-21T12:42:13.325-04:00Ken: Great comments! Regarding power input, my m...Ken: Great comments! Regarding power input, my model uses published research done on cyclists in laboratory settings. Each rider is obviously different; my model seeks to find the winning stage time, which means using the top power outputs. Drafting, motion in a peloton, and other factors alter the drag on a rider. The rider's orientation for uphill and downhill biking also affect drag. What my model does is use published power results to estimate what the winner will output on average over a given segment of the race. It is true that you will find a wide range of power estimates. In short bursts, cyclists are capable are rather large power outputs, even upwards of 500W (see "High-Tech Cycling," edited by Edmund R. Burke).<br /><br />As for the mesh I use, I am employing Google Earth to help me add a few extra points. There is a balance between too fine a mesh and too coarse a mesh. I certainly don't want to know about every cobblestone and stick a rider may pass over. But, I need to know important points where the road slope changes.<br /><br />Thanks again for the great comments!John Eric Goffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16055443328349993690noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5638300827372767452.post-52870686298166692012011-07-21T12:29:51.351-04:002011-07-21T12:29:51.351-04:00Great to see your model.
At 3.2km to go Andy Zeit...Great to see your model.<br /><br />At 3.2km to go Andy Zeits came up with 253W, again lower than your estimate. Not sure where he finished though as the results aren't up yet. You said you can't get good enough profile data as "The profile data available on the Tour de France website is, unfortunately, not as good as ..." but if you use Google Earth you can get any mesh density you want. <br /><br />The stage 17 time of 6h 7m 56s is +5% on your prediction.Kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5638300827372767452.post-48146250997084296072011-07-21T11:11:55.779-04:002011-07-21T11:11:55.779-04:00I had a look at your model. You point out the mode...I had a look at your model. You point out the model "is most sensitive to the cyclist’s power input" but the power input estimates seem higher than the numbers I'm seeing at http://media.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/tourtracker/ . The tour tracker could be improved but some riders have live power data which becomes available when they get close enough to the front. Early tonight Irizar was coming up mostly a bit below 300W. The highest I saw was 474W.Kenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12646820293865967444noreply@blogger.com