Wout van Aert Sprints for Hat Trick and Tadej Pogačar Repeats!

Wout van Aert won his third stage of this year's Tour de France.  After winning a mountain stage and a time trial, he showed what an all-around talented cyclist he is by winning a sprint stage.  He held off Mark Cavendish's attempt to set the record for stage wins.

Racing was very slow at the start, making me worry that our prediction would be too fast.  Serious racing did not begin until the last three or four laps of the seven famous laps in Paris.  Had the race ended with six laps, we would have been nearly perfect.  But the extra lap gave us a fast prediction.

• Stage 21:  2h 39' 37" (actual), 2h 33' 04" (prediction), 06' 33" fast (-4.10% error)

I do not like seeing another stage prediction off by more than 3%, but I am bothered less on the final stage because I never know how much ceremony will play a role in the first half of the stage.  We have usually hit the last stage quite well, but this year's prediction was a bit fast.  The beauty of being wrong is learning something!  We will have a lot to dissect with this year's Tour de France.  Check out van Aert's average speed.

• Stage 21:  11.32 m/s (40.75 kph or 25.32 mph)

That is definitely a slow average speed for the final stage.

Cycling a safe and sound Stage 21 meant that Tadej Pogačar would secure his second straight Tour de France win, and that is just what he did today.  Pogačar not only won the yellow jersey, he won the polka dot and white jerseys, just as he did last year.  Who can beat this guy over the next few years?

Pogačar will face a serious challenge from this year's runner-up, Jonas Vingegaard, shown on the left above.  Vingegaard gave Pogačar his most worrisome moment this year.  Coming in third is Richard Carapaz, the first Ecuadoran to earn a podium finish.  It was wonderful seeing the cyclists' kids on the stage, too!

I have noted in this space before that the science is what motivates me to model the Tour de France.  Learning how elite cyclists do what they do fascinates me.  Posting stage-winning time predictions on my blog interjects some additional fun into my research.  My students always get a kick out of seeing how close we get.  Noah Baumgartner worked with me again this year.  We will have a lot to do with post-race analysis.  We hit 13 stages to less than 3% error.  For the other eight stages, some were close to 3% error, some were not.  Weather and team strategies played role, as did a lone cyclist going ballistic on a couple of stages.  All 21 stages will provide fertile ground for learning.

Wout van Aert Takes Time Trial!

Belgian Wout van Aert won his second stage in this year's Tour de France with an impressive individual time trial.  Just seven other cyclists could get within a minute of van Aert.

At least our prediction was within a minute of his great ride!

• Stage 20:  35' 53" (actual), 36' 40" (prediction), 00' 47" slow (2.18% error)

I am happy with that prediction.  What made me even happier was watching van Aert really crank up the speed.

• Stage 20:  14.31 m/s (51.50 kph or 32.00 mph)

I certainly know what that speed is like in a car, but not on a bicycle, especially as an average speed for more than half an hour.

One of the seven riders who came within a minute of van Aert was this year's Tour de France winner, Tadej Pogačar.  He will ride into Paris tomorrow, cross the finish line as the winner for the second straight year, and also collect the white and polka dot jerseys.  He still has two months to go before turning 23!

Tomorrow's mostly ceremonial stage begins in Chatou.  Riders will travel 108.4 km (67.36 mi), first going west, and then making a counterclockwise circle back east to Paris.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 21:  2h 33' 04" (prediction)

It will be hard to not root for Mark Cavendish to break the record!

Matej Mohorič Wins Another BLISTERINGLY FAST Stage!

Matej Mohorič did in today's Stage 19 what he did in Stage 7.  He blew away his competition -- and our model! -- with a stunningly fast stage.  He rode the final 25 km (16 mi) as if he were riding a time trial.  He stayed in his biggest gear and grinded out those final 25 km in the blink of an eye.

Check out Mohorič's obliteration of our model.

• Stage 19:  4h 19' 17" (actual), 4h 37' 30" (prediction), 18' 13" slow (7.03% error)

Yeesh, that is not a good error.  But look at Mohorič's average speed.

• Stage 19:  13.31 m/s (47.90 kph or 29.76 mph)

I cannot believe he averaged nearly 48 kph (30 mph) on a 207-km (129-mi) long stage!  The Tour de France organizers estimated 45 kph (28 mph) as the top average speed on their time schedule.  Mohorič also blew away the Stage 7 time schedule.  When he decides to go for a stage win, he goes all out!

The peloton and the yellow jersey came in nearly 21' after Mohorič crossed the line.  As with Stage 7, we did a great job modeling the peloton!  We will have to think about power outputs on stages where lone cyclists are likely to go bananas!

Tomorrow's Stage 20 is a 30.8-km (19.1-mi) individual time trial.  Picking up in Libourne, cyclists will head around a clockwise loop to the east and finish in Saint-Émilion.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 20:  36' 40" (prediction)

I doubt much will change in the GC classification after tomorrow's stage, but it will be exciting to watch nonetheless!

Déjà Vu on Stage 18!

Tadej Pogačar continues to dazzle cycling fans.  I thought I was watching yesterday's stage when today's Stage 18 nearly had its winner.  Inside of half a kilometer, Pogačar simply accelerated past his competition.  He makes cycling up a tough climb look easy!

Our prediction was a bit slow today, but not too bad at just outside the 3% error I want to be under.

• Stage 18:  3h 33' 45" (actual), 3h 40' 36" (prediction), 06' 51" slow (3.20% error)

Speed was fast and the elite climbers set a torrid pace up the final climb.  Check out Pogačar's average speed.

• Stage 18:  10.11 m/s (36.41 kph or 22.62 mph)

Pogačar is on a different level.  He has nearly a six-minute lead in the GC classification.  Winning back-to-back brutal mountain stages is amazing!

Tomorrow's Stage 19 is a long, flat stage to get cyclists to the final individual time trial.  Beginning in the commune of Mourenx, riders will travel 207 km (129 mi) north to Libourne.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 19:  4h 37' 30" (prediction)

Will Mark Cavendish break the record tomorrow?

Is the Tour de France Over?!?

What an unbelievable battle on the climb to the summit of Col de Portet!  Watching Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, and Richard Carapaz attack and battle on that climb is something I will never forget.  Carapaz made a late surge for the stage win, which left Vingegaard behind for a bit, but Vingegaard caught up.  Pogačar got inside of half a kilometer and just blasted forward for the stage win, which he got.

Can anyone take that yellow jersey from Pogačar?  I do not see it happening.  The Tour de France looks to be over.  We had another great prediction today.

• Stage 17:  5h 03' 31" (actual), 4h 58' 23" (prediction), 05' 08" fast (-1.69% error)

I love that error with such a difficult final climb!  Check out Pogačar's incredible average speed.

• Stage 17:  9.80 m/s (35.27 kph or 21.91 mph)

Tomorrow's 129.7-km (80.59-mi) mountain Stage 18 begins in the commune of Pau and takes riders southeast to the ski resort at Luz Ardiden.  Cyclists will face two hors catégorie climbs, including the stage's end.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 18:  3h 40' 36" (prediction)

I cannot see Pogačar finishing tomorrow's stage with less than a five-minute lead in the GC classification.

Patrick Konrad Outduels Pursuers to Take Stage 16!

With just over 36 km (22 mi) left in today's stage, Patrick Konrad broke away from the lead group and went for the stage win.  He took care of the last couple of climbs, navigated wet roads, which slowed descents, and took his first Tour de France stage win.

Our model was back on track today.  The wet roads made me think we would be a tad fast.

• Stage 16:  4h 01' 59" (actual), 3h 56' 52" (prediction), 05' 07" fast (-2.11% error)

Konrad had an impressive average speed.

• Stage 16:  11.64 m/s (41.90 kph or 26.04 mph)

Tomorrow's Stage 17 is not for fainthearted cyclists.  The 178.4-km (110.9-mi) mountain stage begins in the commune of Muret and takes cyclists southwest to Saint-Lary-Soulan.  The first two-thirds of the stage is fairly flat.  But two category-1 climbs will then greet riders.  The stage ends with an hors catégorie climb to the summit of Col de Portet.  How will riders' legs be when they begin climbing?  If there is ever a time to challenge the yellow jersey, tomorrow is the day!  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 17:  4h 58' 23" (prediction)

The final climb will be exciting to watch!

Stage 16 Prediction

Tomorrow's 169-km (105-mi) medium mountain Stage 16 begins in the east Andorra town of El Pas de la Casa.  Cyclists will ride northwest until they reach Saint-Gaudens back in France.  Racing will be fast at first, but then two category-2 climbs and one category-1 climb in the Pyrenees will allow fans to watch the climbers shine.  Two brutal mountain stages follow Stage 16.  Will the yellow jersey be challenged tomorrow, or will GC challengers wait for the two stages to follow?  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 16:  3h 56' 52" (prediction)

We have hit two thirds of the stages to this point.  The ones we missed have either been won by a crazy-fast time or stages in which the GC contenders did not fight too hard.  Strategies are always fun to guess!

Sepp Kuss Wins a Stage for the USA!

Racing was a bit slower than I expected because there were no serious attacks on the yellow jersey.  But how our prediction would do was out the window when I had the chance to root for fellow countryman Sepp Kuss.  He was pursued by Alejandro Valverde, but Valverde could not catch up.

I was standing in my office while Kuss crossed the finish line.  That was exciting!  Our prediction was too fast.

• Stage 15:  5h 12' 06" (actual), 4h 55' 58" (prediction), 16' 08" fast (-5.17% error)

I wanted to see more attacking on the yellow jersey.  With tomorrow's rest day, I thought GC contenders would push a bit more today.  But check out Kuss's average speed.

• Stage 15:  10.22 m/s (36.78 kph or 22.85 mph)

That's a great average speed!  As a middle-aged physicist watching the Tour de France in my office, it is very easy for me to root for faster speeds!

Tomorrow is the second and final rest day of the Tour de France.  Cyclists will relax where they finished today, in Andorra la Vella.  Teams will discuss their strategies for the next three stages in the Pyrenees.  I will post our Stage 16 prediction tomorrow.

Mollema Rides Away with Stage 14 Win!

With about 40 km (25 mi) left in today's stage, Bauke Mollema simply made up his mind to go for the stage win.  And before long, nobody could get closer than about a minute to Mollema.  He crossed the finish line with no one in sight.  What a great ride!

Our prediction did well today, though we were closer to the peloton, which crossed the line nearly seven minutes after Mollema.

• Stage 14:  4h 16' 16" (actual), 4h 23' 19" (prediction), 07' 03" slow (2.75% error)

That makes 10 stages we have hit to better than 3%.  I like the four we got under 1%, but I will definitely take today's result after Mollema went all out and beat our prediction.  Check out his average speed.

• Stage 14:  11.95 m/s (43.01 kph or 26.73 mph)

Tomorrow's 191.3-km (118.9-mi) mountain stage begins in Céret and takes riders west into Andorra la Vella, the capital of Andorra.  Three big climbs and a fast downhill finish will make for an exciting day of racing in the Pyrenees!  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 15:  4h 55' 58" (prediction)

Michael Woods grabbed the polka dot jersey from Nairo Quintana today.  Will Woods hold onto that jersey tomorrow?  Guillaume Martin jumped from 9th to 2nd in the GC classification today, and also shaved more than a minute off Tadej Pogačar's overall lead.  Will the yellow jersey be seriously threatened before Monday's rest day?  It will be fun to watch!

Cavendish Ties Merckx!!!

Mark Cavendish was set up beautifully by his Deceunick--Quick-Step mates in the final kilometers.  And then the Manx Missile did what he does best -- blast past his competition.  He's now tied with Eddy Merckx for the most Tour de France stage wins with 34.  What an amazing sprint to make history!

That's the look of a man with his 4th stage win in this year's Tour de France and his 34th overall.  Our model was back on track with today's stage.

• Stage 13:  5h 04' 29" (actual), 4' 59' 08" (prediction), 05' 21" fast (-1.76% error)

Cavendish had a great average speed, given that temperatures exceeded 30 C (86 F) and cross winds surpassed 18 kph (11 mph).

• Stage 13:  12.04 m/s (43.33 kph or 26.93 mph)

Tomorrow's Stage 14 is a medium mountain stage that picks up in Carcassonne and takes riders south to Quillan.  There are five category climbs in the 183.7-km (114.1-mi) stage.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 14:  4h 23' 19" (prediction)

It's now time for the climbers and GC contenders to make some noise!

Nils Politt Blows Away Competition!

Nils Politt was all about winning today's stage.  We were headed for a great prediction today until Politt made a solo attack and simply barreled his way to the finish line.  As I wrote and feared yesterday, we were too slow with our prediction.

We had our second-worst prediction in this year's Tour de France.

• Stage 12:  3h 22' 12" (actual), 3h 39' 30" (prediction), 17'18" slow (8.56% error)

Check out Politt's average speed.

• Stage 12:  13.14 m/s (47.30 kph or 29.39 mph)

The time schedule on the Tour de France web page estimated 45 kph as the top average speed.  Suffice to note, Politt's average speed was amazing!  I love the image below.

That's Mark Cavendish in the green jersey, leading the peloton across the finish line.  Cavendish officially finished 14th today with a time of 3h 38' 05".  The next 126 riders received the same time.  Our model actually nailed the peloton!  But our goal is to hit the winner's time.  I hope we do better tomorrow!

Stage 13, at 219.9 km (136.6 mi), is a long, flat stage, which commences where Stage 12 ended, in Nîmes, and takes riders southwest to Carcassonne.  The route is not too far from the coast, so winds could play a role.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 13:  4h 59' 08" (prediction)

Tomorrow's stage is a mostly flat travel toward the Pyrenees.  Five medium mountain and mountain stages follow tomorrow's stage!

We Nearly Nail Wout van Aert's Great Ride!

Wout van Aert showed today why he's such a dominating young force in cycling.  He left his competition behind on the final climb and won today's Stage 11 of the Tour de France by more than a minute.  For all the attacking that took place, Wout van Aert withstood all challengers to set up an emotional ride across the finish line.

I was actually hoping he would push a tad harder to the finish line so that we could have a shot at a perfect prediction.  That's a silly thing to root for!

• Stage 11:  5h 17' 43" (actual), 5h 16' 02" (prediction), 01' 41" fast (-0.53% error)

We really nailed that stage-winning time!  Check out Wout van Aert's average speed.

• Stage 11:  10.43 m/s (37.56 kph or 23.34 mph)

That's a terrific average speed for such a grueling mountain stage!

Tomorrow's Stage 12 is flat and relatively short at 159.4 km (99.05 mi).  It begins in the commune of Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux and takes riders southwest to Nîmes.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 12:  3h 39' 30" (prediction)

It's always hard to read a stage like this one.  It's flat and fairly short, so the GC contenders are likely to stay together in the peloton.  There could be some attacking and a few riders going all out to win the stage.  I don't think we'll be fast, but we could be slow.

Hat Trick for Cavendish!

Today's Stage 10 of the Tour de France was a bit sluggish for most of the race.  The peloton moved through some beautiful parts of France, but speeds were fairly slow.  Only in the final 30 km (19 mi) or so did frantic racing begin.  Speeds shot up, cross winds helped break up the peloton, and sprinters jockeyed for position in the final kilometers.  And once again, the Manx Missile shot past his competition to earn his 33rd Tour de France stage win, just one behind the great Eddy Merckx.  Check out Mark Cavendish just after he crossed the finish line.

Cavendish now has three stage wins in this year's Tour de France.  We were a tad fast because of the slow pace for most of the stage.

• Stage 10:  4h 14' 07" (actual), 4h 07' 59" (prediction), 06' 08" fast (-2.41% error)

I'm just happy to be under 3% error!  The fast pace during the final part of the race brought up the average speed to a pretty good clip.

• Stage 10:  12.51 m/s (45.03 kph or 27.98 mph)

Cavendish will have a few more shots to tie Merckx.

Tomorrow's mountain Stage 11 begins in Sorgues and ends to the northeast in Malaucène.  The final part of the 198.9-km (123.6-mi) stage will be a joy to watch.  There will be two climbs to the 1910-m (6266-ft) summit of Mont Ventoux.  The first climb will be category 1; the second will be Hors Catégorie.  The second descent off Mont Ventoux will make for a blisteringly fast finish.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 11:  5h 16' 02" (prediction)

Will the yellow jersey face serious attack?  It will be fun to see!

Stage 10 Prediction

Beginning in Albertville, the home of the 1992 Winter Olympics, tomorrow's flat Stage 10 takes riders 190.7 km (118.5 mi) southwest to the commune of Valence.  I've no idea what the weather will be like, and I certainly don't know if the yellow jersey will be attacked.  I suspect the yellow jersey will cross the finish line with the peloton, just prior to some of the top sprinters going for the win.  But the fun of the Tour de France is not knowing all the strategies ahead of time!  Below is our prediction for Stage 10.

• Stage 10:  4h 07' 59" (prediction)

Barring a major crash, Tadej Pogačar should retain the yellow jersey after tomorrow's stage.

Ben O'Connor Dominates Stage 9 -- and Nearly Grabs Yellow!

Ben O'Connor made Australia proud today with a dominating ride that showed what an incredible climber he is.  After yesterday's seemingly super-human performance by Tadej Pogačar, the yellow jersey looked safe on Pogačar.  But O'Connor had the ride of his life today and vaulted up to the overall lead for several kilometers during today's stage before Pogačar exploded at the end of the final climb to maintain the yellow jersey.  O'Connor is now second in the general classification, 2' 01" behind Pogačar.  Instead of putting an image of O'Connor at the line, I'll opt instead for a shot of O'Connor on the podium.  He won the stage by more than five minutes!

As O'Connor said after the race, today's conditions were "atrocious."  It didn't take long after the stage began for me to realize that our prediction was going to be much too fast.  It was pouring the rain for much of the stage.  And it was cold; temperatures dipped below 9 C (48 F).  With such treacherous conditions, all I can do is note that we can't know the weather on each stage prior to the start of the Tour de France.

• Stage 9:  4h 26' 43" (actual), 4h 07' 31" (prediction), 19' 12" fast (-7.20% error)

Cyclists were changing jerseys, getting waterlogged, fumbling with gloves to keep their hands warm, and constantly eating gels to maintain energy balance.  With stages like today's that are riddled with horrible weather, we simply have to eat a fast prediction.  Check out O'Connor's average speed.

• Stage 9:  9.05 m/s (32.60 kph or 20.25 mph)

All is not lost today with modeling because I get to learn a lot more about cycling in poor weather.  We hit two thirds of the first nine stages quite well.  Two other stages saw faster-than-expected speeds, and today's stage had weather issues.

Tomorrow is the first of two rest days in the Tour de France.  Cyclists will remain in Tignes for their much-deserved day of rest.  I'll celebrate 4th of July here for the rest of today, and tomorrow I'll post our prediction for Tuesday's Stage 10.

Dylan Teuns Takes Stage 8!

Lots of rain today made me think our prediction would be too fast.  But I underestimated just good elite cyclists can navigate fast descents on wet roads.  Speeds reached around 80 kph (50 mph) on the descents.  I was in awe of how lead riders flew downhill, narrowly missing gravel and walls.  Dylan Teuns was amazing in winning the stage, but fans will remember Tadej Pogačar defend his Tour de France win with an incredible attack near the summit of Col de Romme.  And then Pogačar ate up his competition as he took on Col de la Colombière and secured the yellow jersey with nearly a two-minute lead when today's stage finished.  Check out Teuns crossing the finish line, thinking of his recently departed grandfather.

Our modeling got back on track today.

• Stage 8:  3h 54' 41" (actual), 3h 58' 34" (prediction), 03' 53" slow (1.65% error)

Speeds were again fast, but not well beyond what we predicted, as happened on the previous two stages.

• Stage 8:  10.71 m/s (38.55 kph or 23.96 mph)

There were moments when my jaw was agape while watching Pogačar fly up the mountains.  Just like the most elite of great athletes, he almost made riding up those 10% and greater climbs look easy.

Tomorrow's 144.9-km (90.04-mi) Stage 9 begins in the eastern French commune of Cluses and takes riders mostly south to Tignes, high in the Rhône-Alpes.  Lots of great climbing, including an uphill finish, await riders tomorrow!  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 9:  4h 07' 31" (prediction)

We are looking for another fast stage tomorrow.  If Tadej Pogačar does tomorrow what he did today, he'll head to Monday's rest day with the Tour de France all but locked up.  He is his only competitor now!

Mohorič Wins a CRAZY Stage7!

Slovenian Matej Mohorič won a wild stage today.  Crashes and a shakeup in the general classification were part of a second straight stage that had me shaking my head at the winner's average speed.  This super-long stage was FAST!

As Mohorič said in his post-race interview, he can keep up a great pace on a long stage.  Check out how he did against our prediction.

• Stage 7:  5h 28' 20" (actual), 5h 47' 52" (prediction), 19' 32" slow (5.95% error)

That's about twice the error I like to see.  We were better than yesterday, but I want us back under 3%.  Mohorič biked this stage like it was the only stage in the race.  He was flat-out great in the saddle today.  Check out his average speed.

• Stage 7:  12.64 m/s (45.52 kph or 28.29 mph)

I thought we would be too fast today!  The Tour de France organizers had 43 kph (27 mph) as the top average speed estimate in their time schedule.  The various attacks kept pace up.  Mathieu van der Poel retains the yellow jersey after a strong ride.  Last year's winner, Tadej Pogačar, fought hard at the end and stayed in contention, despite losing more than three-and-a-half minutes off the yellow jersey.

We did better modeling Mark Cavendish today, who came in 153th place, than we did modeling the winner.  The incredible speeds yesterday and today will certainly be something we need to study!

Tomorrow's Stage 8 is the first mountain stage.  It begins in eastern France in the commune of Oyonnax and goes 150.8 km (93.7 mi) southeast to Le Grand-Bornand.  Three category-1 climbs await riders in the latter half of the stage, and a downhill finish should make for a fast sprint to the line.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 8:  3h 58' 43" (prediction)

After the last two stages, I can't help but wonder if a rider will go ballistic tomorrow and come in well under our time.  However our prediction fares, I can't wait to see the climbers on Col de la Colombière!

Cavendish Wins #32!

Mark Cavendish continues his remarkable Tour de France career with his 32nd stage win, putting him just two behind the great Eddy Merckx.  I was rooting against our prediction because the pace was blistering today.  It was so much fun watching today!  I rooted for Greg Van Avermaet and Roger Kluge to hold on in the breakaway, but the peloton caught them with just 2.5 km (1.6 mi) left.  And then I rooted for the sprinters to give viewers something exciting, and they didn't disappoint.  Speeds nearly hit 60 kph (37 mph) in the final sprint to the finish line!

Below is how we did with our prediction.

• Stage 6:  3h 17' 36" (actual), 3h 36' 46" (prediction), 19' 10" slow (9.70% error)

After five great predictions, we finally have a bad one.  We can't hit them all under 3%!  Racing was so fast all stage long; I knew early on that our prediction was headed for trouble.  Check out the average speed for the Manx Missile.

• Stage 6:  13.55 m/s (48.77 kph or 30.30 mph)

That average speed was just 2.23 kph (1.39 mph) less than yesterday's individual time trail!  Ponder that last sentence for a moment.  I continue to be amazed by what elite cyclists can do.

Tomorrow's Stage 7 is very long at 249.1 km (154.8 mi).  I don't think I've seen a stage that long since 2000's Stage 14, which was 249.5 km (155.0 mi) long.  Starting in Vierzon, cyclists will head due east to Le Creusot.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 7:  5h 47' 52" (prediction)

A stage like tomorrow's is tough to predict strategies.  Lots of little climbs in the latter half of the stage lead to the stage being classified as medium mountain.  Two mountain stages follow tomorrows stage.  Will the peloton move slowly or will there be a need to keep up with several attackers?  If the climbs at the end slow cyclists down, we'll be too fast with our prediction.  I definitely want to see the winner come in with a time under six hours!